By Nick Wagoner
Staff Writer

The NFL Draft is always one of the most unpredictable days on the football calendar. That holds true and then some this year, a year in which the only thing we know for sure is that nothing is guaranteed.

By now, the No. 1 pick in the draft is usually common knowledge. In fact, the top pick is often signed to a contract at this point in the process. But not this year. This year presents more uncertainty than any draft in recent memory. 

There are a number of teams at the top of the draft hoping to move down, a limited number, if any, teams trying to move up and a draft class that has yet to see the cream rise to the top.

Perhaps Rams General Manager Charley Armey puts it best when discussing the level of talent of this year’s class.

“This is a strange year because there's a big cluster of players that fall right at the bottom of Round 1 and into Round 2," Armey said. "So everybody sees it different."

As always, everybody sees it different with their mock drafts, too. So, here is one guess at it with no trades or assumptions made. These picks are done based on what a team is likely to do rather than what it should do.

1. San Francisco – Alex Smith, QB, Utah – Smith seems to be the preferred choice of the two quarterbacks for the 49ers. He is going to be more costly than Aaron Rodgers, but Smith is more physically gifted. In the end, he will be the choice.

2. Miami – Ronnie Brown, RB, Auburn – The Dolphins desperately want to trade out of this spot because they know they can get a top back later in the top 10. If they stay here, it could be Brown, Braylon Edwards or Rodgers. Coach Nick Saban knows Brown well from the SEC and goes with the versatile back.

3. Cleveland – Braylon Edwards, WR, Michigan – Many consider Edwards the best player in the draft. The Browns also want to move down to choose a defensive player, but they need a playmaker and Edwards is the best out there.

4. Chicago – Cedric Benson, RB, Texas – The Bears would love to get Edwards to pair with Muhsin Muhammad. Assuming he is gone, Chicago could use a durable, power runner. The Bears could go with Cadillac Williams or Mike Williams at receiver, but Benson seems to be their favorite.

5. Tampa Bay – Cadillac Williams, RB, Auburn – The Bucs are one of the few teams in the draft that would like to move up. If Rodgers ends up going No. 1, watch Tampa Bay try to move into the No. 2 spot to grab Smith. If they stay here, they could go with local product Mike Williams or grab the best running back on their board. They should opt for the latter.

6. Tennessee – Antrel Rolle, CB, Miami – Rolle is the best cornerback in the draft and seems like a good fit for the Titans. Tennessee seems like it hasn’t shown much interest in Rolle, but expect it to grab the best available defensive back. If the Titans go by that logic, they should take Rolle.

7. Minnesota – Troy Williamson, WR, South Carolina – This could be the first big curveball of the draft. It is assumed that the Vikings would take Mike Williams here, but Minnesota needs a receiver who can stretch the field and catch the long ball. Williamson fits that bill.

8. Arizona – Aaron Rodgers, QB, California – Rodgers’ slide stops here. The Cardinals need help at running back and defensive back more than at quarterback, but Rodgers has too much value at this point in the draft.

9. Washington – Mike Williams, WR, USC – The Redskins seemed like a sure bet to take a cornerback at this spot, but are stunned when Williams is still available and opt for the big receiver to help fill the void left by the trade of Laveranues Coles.

10. Detroit – Derrick Johnson, LB, Texas – Some say he is the best defensive player on the board. Johnson is a fast, athletic type of linebacker who is always around the ball. Put him with Boss Bailey and Teddy Lehman and the Lions suddenly have one of the best and fastest linebacking corps in the league.

11. Dallas – DeMarcus Ware, LB/DE, Troy – The Cowboys search for a speed rushing linebacker for the 3-4 defense ends with Ware. Dallas gets to choose between Ware’s speed and Shawne Merriman’s size. Speed wins out.

12. San Diego – Marcus Spears, DE, LSU – Spears is the perfect end for a 3-4 defense. He is big, strong and quick much like New England’s Richard Seymour. The Chargers use the pick gained from the Giants in the Eli Manning trade to bolster the defensive line.

13. Houston – Shawne Merriman, LB/DE, Maryland – The Texans could go in a number of directions with this choice. Alex Barron would make a lot of sense, as would a wide receiver such as Mark Clayton, but Houston needs to improve its pass rush making Merriman an excellent choice.

14. Carolina – Alex Barron, OT, Florida State – The Panthers can’t believe their good fortune that the best tackle in the draft is on the board when they choose. Barron should step in immediately at left tackle, quickly improving both tackle spots as Jordan Gross plays on the right side.

15. Kansas City – Thomas Davis, SS/LB, Georgia – After acquiring cornerback Patrick Surtain from Miami, it would be easy for the Chiefs to take one of the other top corners, giving them an excellent pair of cover men, but Davis gives them versatility to help at safety and linebacker, two spots that could use some help.

16. New Orleans – Adam “Pacman” Jones, CB, West Virginia – The Saints have made no secret that they covet Davis, but will gladly accept this consolation prize. Jones slips because of his size, but he gives New Orleans a good cover corner and an even better kick returner.

17. Cincinnati –Carlos Rogers, CB, Auburn – Rogers is another player who has been rising up team’s draft boards in recent weeks. He could easily go higher than this, but if he does fall, the Bengals won’t let him slide much further. Cincinnati has enough needs that it could simply take the best player on the board. At this stage, that’s Rogers.

18. Minnesota – Erasmus James, DE, Wisconsin – James might be the best end on the board, but he has slipped because of injury concerns. James would give the Vikings one of the most talented young defensive lines in the NFL. Pairing James with Kenechi Udeze on the ends would bolster the Vikings’ pass rush and complete an impressive offseason defensive makeover.

19. St. Louis – Jammal Brown, OT, Oklahoma – The Rams need the most help on the offensive line and at safety. If Davis were to fall to this spot, it would be hard for St. Louis to pass, but since he is gone, it goes with the right tackle that could step in and start immediately. There are no other safeties worthy of this selection and Brown has the kind of attitude and game to fit in right away.

20. Dallas – David Pollack, DE/LB, Georgia – The Cowboys could easily go with a receiver here, but coach Bill Parcells loves to draft defense. Adding Pollack, a player with a non-stop motor who simply doesn’t quit, to the defense gives the Cowboys a pair of defenders that could start immediately.

21. Jacksonville – Marlin Jackson, CB/S, Michigan – Jackson is probably not as talented at cornerback as some of the other names left on the board, but his versatility makes him a valuable commodity. The Jaguars need as much help as possible in the secondary so why not grab a guy who can help at any of the positions?

22. Baltimore – Mark Clayton, WR, Oklahoma – General Manager Ozzie Newsome is thrilled that Clayton falls into his lap at this spot. Some teams rank Clayton ahead of Williams and Williamson and the Ravens would quickly scoop up the productive Clayton in this spot.

23. Seattle – Dan Cody, DE, Oklahoma – The Seahawks have had trouble finding stability at end in recent seasons and lost Chike Okeafor to the Cardinals in the offseason. The signing of cornerback Andre Dyson makes end a top priority. Seattle could also grab a linebacker at this spot.

24. Green Bay – Travis Johnson, DT, Florida State – Johnson is the best of a relatively thin class at defensive tackle. The Packers haven’t had a dominant tackle since Gilbert Brown was in his prime. Don’t be stunned if the Packers grab a quarterback, such as Auburn’s Jason Campbell here.

25. Washington (from Denver) – Fabian Washington, CB, Nebraska – The Redskins supposedly traded with Denver for this spot so they could grab the aforementioned Campbell as the quarterback of the future. It seems fishy that that news would get out so quickly, especially of someone else wanted to trade ahead of Washington to grab him. Originally, the Redskins were thought to be grabbing a cornerback with the ninth pick, but since Williams falls to them, they take a corner here, an extremely fast one.

26. Oakland (from New York Jets) – Shaun Cody, DL, USC – Cody can play either tackle or end, giving the Raiders some versatility along an aging defensive line. Oakland desperately needs some help for its front seven and taking the best available linebacker or lineman makes a lot of sense. Cody fits the bill.

27. Atlanta – Brodney Pool, FS, Oklahoma – Pool is by far the best free safety on the board. This might be a little early for him, but the Falcons need a ballhawk at the safety position. After adding DeAngelo Hall a year ago to play corner, Atlanta continues the reconstruction of the defensive backfield.

28. San Diego – Roddy White, WR, UAB – The Chargers could use a home run hitting receiver capable of making big plays to pair with Keenan McCardell and tight end Antonio Gates. White is the kind of guy who can stretch a defense and would be a solid choice this late in the round.

29. Indianapolis – Justin Miller, CB, Clemson – The Colts need help at just about every defensive position. This is a case of taking the best available defensive player and it comes down to Miller or Iowa defensive end Matt Roth. Either one makes a lot of sense, but Miller’s ability to return kicks makes him slightly more valuable.

30. Pittsburgh – Heath Miller, TE, Virginia – Once thought to be a top 10 player, Miller has fallen down some boards because he has been unable to participate in any pre-draft workouts. He is still a good pass-catching tight end who can go get the ball in traffic. He would be a steal this late in the first round and give quarterback Ben Roethlisberger another big target over the middle.

31. Philadelphia – Khalif Barnes, OT, Washington – The Eagles have a lot of flexibility in this draft to go in a number of directions. They could reach for someone intriguing like Arkansas’ Matt Jones or play it safe with one of the three best tackles in the draft. Jon Runyan and Tra Thomas aren’t getting any younger so Barnes could come in and be groomed for the future.

32. New England – Odell Thurman, LB, Georgia – The Patriots generally stick to high-character guys who fill a need. With that said, New England needs to get younger at linebacker and find some players who can cover and stop the run. Thurman has had plenty of trouble off the field, but he is a good fit as a 3-4 linebacker. The Patriots also seem to have found a way to get guys who are known as head cases to mold to the team’s philosophy. Thurman’s talent wins out over Barrett Ruud’s attitude.